During campaigns, every party throws numbers around. But the tricks used don't belong to any one party – they work the same for all of them. That's why every example here is made up: "Party A" and "Party B," not real parties.
Trick 1
The Chosen Starting Point
A politician likes to say: "Since we took office, unemployment has dropped sharply!" That can even be true – the question is just, from when do they start counting?
"Since we took office, unemployment has dropped by –!" – Party A
Here's a made-up, but realistically noisy path over 10 years. Pick different starting years and watch how the claim changes – even though the numbers stay exactly the same.
"Sincewe've been in office"
–
Depending on which starting year you pick, the exact same data can read as a huge success or barely any change at all. That doesn't automatically mean the number is made up – but the chosen starting point often shapes the impression more than reality does.
Trick 2
Percent of what, exactly?
"Crime in our town up 50%!" sounds dramatic. Let's look at what might be behind it.
"Crime up 50%!" – Party B
2 → 3
Cases last year → this year
+50%
How it sounds in percent
Both are mathematically correct. Both numbers rarely appear side by side in a campaign statement.
Going from 2 to 3 cases is, statistically, very weak evidence of anything (random chance could easily explain it) – but as "+50%" it sounds like a real trend. For every percentage, ask: percent of what absolute number?
Trick 3
"Since our reform, business is booming"
Remember ice cream and sunburn from Chapter 4? The same thinking trap shows up here too.
"Since our tax reform, the economy is growing – our policy is working!" – Party A
Maybe! But other things could have happened at the same time too: a worldwide economic upswing, lower raw material prices, a strong export market. Without ruling those out, "since X, Y happened" still isn't proof that X caused Y.
That doesn't mean the reform had no effect – only that "after" alone doesn't prove "because of." That's true no matter which party uses this kind of sentence.
Your Checklist
The Same for Every Party
1. What time period is being compared? Why exactly this starting point, and not another one?
2. Percent of what? How big is the absolute number behind it?
3. Correlation or causation? Could something else have happened at the same time?
4. Who's saying it, and with what interest? Doesn't automatically make it false – but it's a reason to look closer.
These four questions apply to Party A just as much as Party B, C, or any other. They don't tell you who to vote for – only how to check a number yourself before you believe it.
You did it!
What you know now
✅ The chosen comparison period often shapes the impression more than reality does.
✅ Percentages without an absolute base don't say much.
✅ "Since X, Y happened" doesn't yet prove a cause.
✅ This checklist works the same for every party – that's the whole point.